As Virginia voters prepare to choose their next governor, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Ralph Northam holds a 6-point lead over former Republican National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie, 51% to 45%, in the Wason Center’s final tracking survey of likely voters. Libertarian Cliff Hyra takes 2% of the vote, with 2% undecided.
Historical voting patterns in Wason Center surveys in statewide Virginia elections show undecided voters breaking approximately 3 to 1 for the Republican candidate. Allocating the undecided voters in line with that pattern indicates Northam’s Election Day vote to be 51.3% and Gillespie’s to be 46.8%.
Northam’s lead dropped one point since the October 27 tracking poll, though he has never trailed Gillespie since the benchmark poll released on September 25, as shown in the tracking chart and graphic on page 3.